How Nikki Fried Wins the Florida Primary by Double Digits
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One year from now, Nikki Fried will be the Democratic Nominee for Florida Governor, by double digits.
Here’s why.
Let’s start with the obvious. Democrats want to win. It’s literally the most important attribute when you poll primary voters — and Nikki Fried is the only statewide Democrat to win Florida since 2012.
If delivered correctly, that messaging alone ends this primary.
But let’s dig deeper. Let’s talk about voter intensity and excitement — the most important way to measure the primary right now.
By every measure — even with a lower name ID and one year out — Nikki Fried is dominating.
Since launching, Nikki has earned 135 million impressions on Twitter. On Google, despite having a former Governor in the primary (which gets lots of academic searching), over the last 90 days, Nikki Fried has doubled the google search traffic of her primary opponent and leads every single market in the state. It’s similarly lopsided on other mediums.
And all of this is organic.
And then there is polling. While nobody would expect Nikki to be up on a former governor with nearly universal name ID, we’ve already seen a PPP (A- pollster) poll doing just that. And we know that in Florida, primary voters have a tendency to not look back when that happens (see the eerily similar 2010 GOP Senate Primary). So expect a few more months of bouncing, and then a clear trajectory.
We’ve also seen multiple polls with Nikki leading Ron DeSantis among NPA voters. And just today, August 23, 2021, one showing her leading.
So we know, DeSantis is far from a lock.
Finally, on money, Nikki again shocks and outperforms conventional wisdom. Even with a one month disadvantage, Nikki has 2,504 more donors than her primary opponent — a lead expected to only grow.
Now let’s talk about an actual primary campaign.
You’ve got the only statewide elected Democrat since 2012 vs. a former Republican Governor now Democratic Congressman. I don’t need or want to say more about this because I like Charlie and think Democrats would be well served if he stayed in his highly competitive swing congressional seat. But if this race is still competitive next year, it doesn’t take a political genius to understand how that scenario turns out.
“Fried could be more in line with the current zeitgeist of the party. Crist is an older white guy and, as a veteran of state politics, represents the party’s past. Fried, by contrast, is a younger woman who has already demonstrated a knack for online media” — 538, Nathaniel Rakich
So, that was why. Let’s talk about how.
You.
We need Democrats and NPAs to rally behind Nikki now — financially and field — because we can’t wait to start Nikki’s general election campaign until after she wins the primary. That’s how we lose the general.
We know DeSantis will have $150 million. And we expect that money to start being flooded on TV, digital, and field early next year. Literally, our only path to victory includes holding and expanding how Nikki won in 2018.
And that has to start now.
So, one year out, the real question is not who’s going to win the Democratic primary for Governor of Florida, it’s what are we doing to win the general?
I hope, for Florida’s sake, you’re not waiting to help Nikki until after she wins the primary by double digits.
Here is the link. Sign up to volunteer and fund the winning primary campaign so we can start working on the most important thing— beating Ron DeSantis.
Kevin Cate, founder of CATECOMM, is an advisor and ad maker for progressive candidates and causes. A 2008 Obama campaign spokesperson, Cate uses stories and cinematics to win competitive, history-making campaigns, including what the New York Timesdubbed the “upset of a lifetime.” His work in 2018 was called “nothing short of brilliant” by the Tallahassee Democrat, and he’s been called “perpetually newsmaking” by POLITICO, a “communications savant” by Florida Politics and a “multimedia wiz” by the Miami Herald.
Cate was Fried’s media consultant during the 2018 cycle and is also an advisor for Nikki Fried for Governor.
