Republicans Are Acting like Nikki Fried Can Win Florida in 2022 — So Should Democrats
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Nikki Fried is scaring the daylights out of Republicans.
And she hasn’t even announced yet.
In just the last few weeks, the only Democrat to win Florida since 2012 and the “leading contender for the Democratic nomination,” has reenergized progressives and independents by investing in a ground game, “building momentum” online with 50+ million hits and 90,000 new followers, and that was before the poll that totally flipped out the echo chamber in Florida.
On March 25th, St. Pete Polls, rated B+ by 538 (like an A++ in Florida), dropped a poll showing Nikki Fried beating DeSantis among independents by 4 points and statistically tied in a head-to-head. And that’s even with the well-respected independent pollster using a model “predicting greater Republican turnout in 2022.”
That’s all well and good, but it’s just typical public polling optimism, right?
Not according to Republicans.
Desantis just hired a new senior advisor and “Republicans officials say they are preparing for what is expected to be a competitive race in the perennial swing state. DeSantis won in 2018 by less than half-a-percentage point, and he is facing a possible showdown next year against Democrat Nikki Fried.”
Now, while Fried hasn’t announced, polling has already proven she should be the candidate. The only other potential candidate with any name ID making noise, Rep. Charlie Crist, is 14 points underwater statewide, a stunning 33 points behind where he started the pre-cycle during his last run for governor.
And she has the path.
It’s Democrats. Independents. And yes, even some Republicans.
Let me tell you, briefly.
In 2018, following a long tradition for Democrats in Florida, Fried was outspent by her Republican opponent by at least 2–1. Yet she still overperformed previous Agriculture Commissioner candidates by 17 points and both sitting U.S. Senator Bill Nelson and national progressive political powerhouse Andrew Gillum in urban, swing, and rural counties.
She did it by spending most of her time and paid resources in swing and red areas of the state, preaching her platform of medical marjiuana, gun safety, and clean drinking water — aka, the three w’s — weed, water, and weapons.
And it resonated. By 6,753 votes.
She knows how to win.
That doesn’t mean Florida won’t be a barnburner in 2022. In fact, if Nikki decides to run, it guarantees it will be. That’s why Republicans, who win Florida like it’s a business, are acting like it.
While DeSantis, who believes his own headlines, will have to continue bending the knee throughout 2022 to not offend the insurrectionist majority of 2024 Republican Presidential Primary voters, Nikki can focus on holding DeSantis accountable, expanding her lead among the growing post-partisan electorate, and fixing the major problems for Democrats among white and some hispanic voters in Florida (not just in Miami-Dade).
I have a few ideas on all of that and more, but that will have to wait for another time or Twitter.
For now, it’s time Florida and national Democrats start acting more like Republicans and get to work this pre-cycle to make sure Fried has everything she needs, if she runs, to end 24 long years of Republican rule in Florida.
About Me:
Kevin Cate, founder of CATECOMM, is an advisor and ad maker for progressive candidates and causes. A 2008 Obama campaign spokesperson, Cate uses stories and cinematics to win competitive, history-making campaigns, including what the New York Timesdubbed the “upset of a lifetime.” His work in 2018 was called “nothing short of brilliant” by the Tallahassee Democrat, and he’s been called “perpetually newsmaking” by POLITICO, a “communications savant” by Florida Politics and a “multimedia wiz” by the Miami Herald.
Cate was Fried’s media consultant during the 2018 cycle and is also an advisor for Fried’s Political Committee, Florida Consumers First.
